Sunday, May 4, 2014
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
My thanks to Carola, Berkeley economics PhD student and excellent blogger. The post tackles one of the biggest issues of the day, Will the explosion in computer/robot/machine ability result in mass unemployment this time, even though previous technological revolutions haven't? I make use of insights from MIT professors Brynjolfsson and McAfee's important new book, as well as their first book on this subject, Race with the Machine.
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Some people seem to think that something like Spain’s slight recovery this year — the best estimates now are that it may grow 1.5 percent — are as big a failure for the critics of austerity as the kind of thing I show above is a failure of the finance canon. But lots of stuff can cause the economy to grow a percentage point or two more or less than your forecast.
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Sunday, February 9, 2014
Only after thirty years -- long enough for the original managers to retire and be replaced by a new generation -- did factory layouts change.
It goes beyond what I said about second-order journalism; Rosen argues that there’s a value system at work, where being in the know about political maneuvering is considered all-important, whereas understanding the actual policy issue is for the drones.
Moreover, older people are more risk averse and less idealistic than the young, making them less amenable to switching to a new paradigm. The positive externalites from trying a new paradigm can be enormous to the world -- and over generations -- as opposed to the benefits to just a lone individual over just one lifetime, which is not so long anymore for the grayhaired. These externalities clearly may not be anywhere close to fully considered. And the risks to the world and future generations are massively diversified and pooled compared to the risks to a lone individual of moving to a new paradigm
Sunday, February 2, 2014
The long evidence and argument for the huge increase in financial riskiness is in Yale political scientist Jacob Hacker's "The Great Risk Shift", Warren's "The Two Income Trap", and the forthcoming, "Chasing the American Dream: Understanding What Shapes Our Fortunes", by a group of accomplished sociologists. For a brief summary of the last book, see this New York Times column by one of the authors.
It's so much not just the average. It's also the risk. And this is just almost never said when income inequality statistics are stated or discussed.
Thursday, January 23, 2014
"That translates into revenues of a hundred thousand dollars per month, or $1.2 million a year."